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skip to: page content | links on this page | site navigation | footer (site information) !--- what's new | about | contact removed coners of menu !--- home models results simulations articles revival references publications modelling search !--- blog !---> limited enthusiasm | discipleship | limits to church growth | sociological models limited enthusiasm | discipleship | limits to church growth | sociological models limited enthusiasm | migration | discipleship maths of church growth | church growth | revival | system dynamics | sociology of religion | social diffusion | epidemics home -- !--- home >> breadcrumb >> breadcrumb page name !--- blog about models logo photos models limited enthusiasm conversion demographics renewal spiritual life migration membership discipleship limits to church growth sociological models results limited enthusiasm revival long term growth long term decline renewal growth & spiritual life migration membership discipleship limits to church growth sociological models misc laws of church growth defence of contemporary revivals modelling advertisement copy goes here. advertisement copy goes here. !--- church growth news rainer: local churches key to reversing sbc decline - baptist press, 20/6/18. thousands of people leave churches in scotland every year - church times, 14/6/18. let go of buildings or face extinction, scholar warns struggling churches - baptist news global, 12/6/18. king's cross church congregation jumps from 40 to 500 - bbc news, 6/6/18. pc(usa) membership decline slows, but does not stop - presbyterian church usa, 4/6/18. membership decline means church of scotland's 'very existence' under threat, report warns - christian today, 21/5/18. why the decline of protestantism may be good news for christians - the gospel coalition, 18/5/18. modelling church growth using mathematics & computer simulation. moriah chapel, loughor, wales. in 1904-5 moriah chapel was the centre of massive church growth in wales through a god-sent revival. about modelling church growth using mathematics and computer simulation. more... !--- popular documents how did the welsh revival of 1904-5 start? timeline of the background to 1904-5 welsh revival timeline of the first two weeks of the welsh revival tipping points. an accessible way into the the principles and results of for the nonspecialist how to build a church growth model using system dynamics contact john hayward postal contact email: twitter: follow @johnhaywarduni social dynamics research linkedin research gate enthusiasts – quantity or quality? enthusiasts are the christian believers that drive the growth of the church. these are the ones whose faith is so infectious that they pass it on to others, who then convert and become enthusiasts themselves. what is the best strategy for the church: to have more enthusiasts, or to have more effective enthusiasts? these issues are addressed in the blog: enthusiasts – quantity or quality? welcome to the website of . this is a science website, so prepare to be challenged. questions welcome. it is a christian website promoting revival, so prepare to be challenged spiritually! feedback and church growth feedback happens when an action results in an effect, which then in turn influences the original action."the more in church the more conversion, thus even more in church!" well not quite! many people in church do not contribute to the conversion process. nevertheless other forms of feedback are at the heart of church growth, reinforcing loops driving growth, balancing loops restraining it. first order feedback, those with only one stock in the loop, control the conversion and leaving processes in church, if conversion involves the direct action of people. see the basic feedback blog . if conversion is indirect, perhaps through resources such as sunday schools, or the action of people generate hindrances to growth, such as institutionalism, then feedback is second order or more. then growth may inadvertently turn to decline. see second order feedback blog sociological models . based on theories in the sociology of religion. !--- the models - quick guide limited enthusiasm model . church grows through the activity of enthusiasts who alone are responsible for the recruitment/conversion of unbelievers into the church. congregational models . applied to the individual congregation only. designed to assist church leaders. limits to church growth models . models to illustrate barriers to church growth. sociological models . based on theories in the sociology of religion. what is church growth? the discipline that analyses why churches grow and decline. sociology, methodology, mathematics, computer simulation. what's new? latest additions to website self enhancing resource model agent-based model of an epidemic growth & decline of welsh presbyterians turchin's model of imperial expansion blog informal articles: billy graham, church growth & revival rise and decline of western civilisation modelling secularisation why revivals stopped in the uk church growth - it's a disease! enthusiasts are "contagious christians" revival threshold extinction threshold limited enthusiasm - revival understanding the dynamics of revival by analogy with the spread of a disease. revival growth threshold - how a small number of enthusiasts can make a big difference. church of england decline limited enthusiasm with demographics applied to church of england attendance data what will it take for the church to survive? limits to church growth what limits the growth of congregations? lack of demand, lack of supply by the churches? a variety of models to explore possible limits to church growth. renewal limited enthusiasm with inactive believers renewed. renewal not evangelism is key to church growth. critical mass. 1904/5 welsh revival & spiritual life application of the spiritual life model to the last big revival in wales. religion is modelled as a disease of variable infectiousness depending on the spiritual life of the church, spread by enthusiasts. under the bonnet what is "modelling"? what lies underneath a dynamical model - the technical details that get it to work? overview of modelling methodologies. introduction to system dynamics & agent based modelling. the bible how does fit in with the bible? is it not god who grows the church? what about other religions? do church growth models only work for christian churches? do islam, hinduism, etc. spread in different ways to christianity? what about church decline? how does fit in with the bible? is it not god who grows the church? under the bonnet the maths behind the models. what is system dynamics? !--- home | models | results | simulations | articles | revival | references | publications | modelling | blog | about | what's new | contact

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http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/disease.html
http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/membermodel.html
http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/systemsrefs.html
http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/modelling.html
http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/longdecline.html
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http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/ciccmodelforweb.pps
model.research.southwales.ac.uk
churchtimes.co.uk
bbc.co.uk
churchgrowthmodelling.blogspot.co.uk
staff.southwales.ac.uk

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